🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of American actions. Market Movement in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been taken into custody. A particular user, which registered on the site in December and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Platform data shows that traders put the odds of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. However the market's assessment had increased to eleven percent by late Friday night and surged in the morning of Saturday, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the signs of a bet based on confidential knowledge," stated Dennis Kelleher. A handful of other individuals also earned tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome. Political Attention Emerges Elected officials are starting to take note. A new rule put forward on recently would prevent public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Market Background Forecasting platforms have grown significantly in the past few years, with traders able to predict everything from sports to political events. This sector faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."